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NOV

SIHMA at the "Conflict and Human Displacement" Conference of the University of Oslo

On Monday, October 28^th, Fr. Filippo Ferraro, our director, presented a keynote address at the “Conflict and Human Displacement” conference organized by the Faculty of Theology at the University of Oslo. The event was part of the "Migration, Ethics, and Theology" webinar series, a collaboration between the Scalabrini International Migration Institute (SIMI) in Rome and scholars involved in the Nordhost project on migration and hospitality within a Nordic context. This webinar series builds on the outcomes of a 2019 international conference hosted in Rome, later published in “Contemporary Christian-Cultural Values” by C. Nahnfeldt and K. Rønsdal, and “Contested Hospitalities in the Time of Migration”, by S. Bendixsen and T. Wyller. SIMI has also published the reports “Migrants and Pilgrims as Our Ancestors” and “Theology of Human Mobility in the 21^st Century”. The webinar series aims to foster networks among scholars and Christian organizations to deepen the understanding of migration issues. Specifically, this initiative provides a platform for dialogue and exchange of practices and lessons learned within Christian communities, facilitating ongoing conversations on migration issues among theologians, scholars, refugees, activists, and leaders from church and civic spheres. The series seeks to strengthen efforts to promote human dignity and protect the rights of migrants and refugees, regardless of their background.

Conflict and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Figures

Fr. Ferraro’s address focused on the significant impact of conflict, violence, and war on migration in Sub-Saharan Africa, citing UNHCR data. His speech highlighted that the conflicts in Western Sahel have led to an increase in displaced persons, especially over the past decade. As of 2023, key figures include:

Burkina Faso: 55,000 refugees, 90,000 asylum seekers, and 2,062,000 IDPs.
Mali: 25,000 refugees, 14,000 asylum seekers, and 355,000 IDPs.
Niger: 25,000 refugees, 15,000 asylum seekers, and 335,000 IDPs.

Burkina Faso has seen a drastic rise in refugees and IDPs, with refugee numbers increasing from 1,600 in 2013 to 55,000 in 2023, while IDPs grew from 2,350 to over 2 million. The Nigerien refugee population also surged, with 670 in 2013 rising to nearly 25,000 in 2023, while IDPs almost tripled to 335,000. Mali's situation has remained relatively stable, although its refugee population grew from 150,000 to 250,000 over the past ten years. Asylum seekers increased notably after the 2014 Mali War and the 2021 coup, reaching 24,000 in 2021 before stabilizing at 14,000 by 2023. The civil war in Sudan, that began in April 2023, has significantly impacted migratory patterns. In 2023, about 1.5 million refugees and over 250,000 asylum seekers fled Sudan. The number of refugees tripled, from 3.5 million in 2022 to over 9 million in 2023, with an increase in South Sudanese asylum seekers as well, growing from 5,200 in 2022 to 25,000 in 2023.

Conflicts in the Lake Chad region — affecting Chad, Niger, Nigeria, and Cameroon — have also spurred displacement. As of 2023:

Cameroon: 110,000 refugees, 50,000 asylum seekers, and 1,075,000 IDPs.
Chad: 10,200 refugees, 41,000 asylum seekers, and 215,000 IDPs.
Niger: 25,000 refugees, 15,000 asylum seekers, and 335,000 IDPs.
Nigeria: 410,000 refugees, 68,500 asylum seekers, and 3.3 million IDPs.

Over the last decade, refugee populations in Cameroon and Nigeria have increased substantially, with Nigerian refugee rising from 32,000 to 410,000. Chad has experienced relative stability, with both refugees and IDPs declining since 2013. These conflicts have driven a very sustained rise in displacement across the region, with more than 7 million individuals displaced in 2023 alone. Migration due to conflict often destabilizes not only the countries at war but also their neighbors, amplifying regional challenges.

Migratory Routes Connecting Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and Europe

Three main routes link Sub-Saharan Africa to Europe: the Western African route, the Western Mediterranean route, and the Central Mediterranean route. The Western African route leads to the Canary Islands, the Western Mediterranean route connects through Morocco and Algeria to Spain, and the Central Mediterranean route spans Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia, leading to Italy. Since 2015, these routes have become more defined. While the Western Mediterranean route has seen steady growth, the Western African route declined, with the Central Mediterranean route surging after a Covid-related slowdown. In 2023, departures peaked at 300,000. The UNHCR reported 234,000 new asylum applications in North Africa in 2023, marking a 27% increase from the prior year. Sudanese nationals constituted a significant portion with 171,500 applications, while the total needing protection likely exceeded the number officially applying. Approximately 212,100 crossing attempts via the Central Mediterranean route were recorded in 2023, representing a 52% increase from 2022, making it the busiest migration year since 2017. UNHCR estimates that 27% of those who arrived in Europe via the Central Mediterranean route in 2023 may have needed international protection. More than one in four were disembarked back in North African countries following a rescue and/or interception at sea.

Italy, Malta and Spain registered 207,723 irregular sea arrivals in 2023, a 77% increase from 2022. The number of arrivals in Italy increased by 73%, but the countries of departure for those who try to cross the Mediterranean are changing: twice as many people (in comparison with 2022) decided to sail from Tunisia to Italy, while 12% less were arriving from Libya. There was a twenty-fold increase in the numbers of Burkinabe arrivals and a five-fold increase in Malians and Sudanese, meaning that the increase in numbers of refugees and asylum seekers coming from the three aforementioned areas of conflict has direct repercussions on the number of arrivals in European countries. Spain received 57,070 arrivals in 2023, with a 91% increase from 2022. 71% of the total number of migrants that illegally tried to enter Spain did not arrive in the European mainland or in the enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, but entered the EU through the Canary Islands: this migratory flow amounted to a total of 40,329 people in 2023. In percentage, departures from Morocco and Western Sahara to Spain (mostly to the Canary Islands) increased by 29%. According to the IOM Libya Migrant Report for 2023/2024, approximately 700,000 migrants passed through the Libyan territory while migrating to Europe. Among this group of migrants, the Nigerians, Sudanese, Chadian and Nigerian were the most prevalent. UNHCR states that in 2023 there was a substantial increase in arrivals in Italy of nationals of countries as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Sudan. Many of those migrants were deemed in need of international protection, and most of them had left from Tunisia and Libya. The number of Sudanese arrivals remained limited, but its numbers showed a substantial increase compared to 2022, probably caused by the upturn in conflict and violence in Sudan, and especially in the western region of Darfur. As people continue to flee from conflicts, war, terrorism, and widespread political violence in the Sahara-Sahel area, an increase in the numbers of migrants in need of international protection arriving in Europe can be expected in the upcoming years.

SIHMA at the "Conflict and Human Displacement" Conference of the University of Oslo

Conflict and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Figures

Migratory Routes Connecting Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and Europe

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SIHMA at the "Conflict and Human Displacement" Conference of the University of Oslo

Conflict and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa: Key Figures

Migratory Routes Connecting Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and Europe

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