SIHMA

Researching Human Migration across Africa

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26 Aug

African Migration Trends, Q2 2025: Regional Dynamics and Global Implications

Migration across Africa in 2025 reflects one of the most dynamic and consequential population movements worldwide. While public discourse often canters on irregular journeys to Europe, the empirical evidence demonstrates a more complex reality, the vast majority of African migration remains intra-continental, shaped by overlapping drivers such as conflict, climate change, economic disparities, and evolving policy frameworks. Recent regional updates from North, West, and East Africa to Southern Africa, Egypt, and Yemen reveal how mobility patterns are being reshaped by intensified border enforcement, regional integration initiatives, and shifting geopolitical interests. These dynamics are not uniform. They vary sharply across regions, with each sub-context reflecting a distinct interplay of humanitarian, economic, and security considerations.

 

The Q2 2025 Mixed Migration Update for North Africa reports a notable increase in irregular sea arrivals to Italy, largely originating from Libya, despite intensified deterrence measures supported by the European Union (Centre, 2025). Libya continues to function as a central transit hub, hosting an estimated 850,000 migrants, with numbers rising due to displacement from the Sudanese conflict (Express, 2025). In Tunisia, the dismantling of migrant camps in Sfax triggered mass displacement (Bathke, 2025), while Algeria expelled more than 16,000 migrants to Niger (Migration, 2025). These measures coincided with contradictory government messaging on regularization and asylum reforms. In Morocco, a joint task force with France was established to accelerate deportations, while EU proposals to classify Tunisia and Morocco as “safe countries of origin” generated rights-based criticism. Migrant fatalities persist across both Mediterranean and Atlantic routes, and Greece has responded to increased arrivals from Libya by deploying naval assets and advancing migration agreements. Overall, the North African update highlights ongoing tension between security-driven border policies and humanitarian obligations (Migration, 2025).

In West Africa, intensified border enforcement, environmental shocks, and shifting migration pathways shaped developments in Q2 2025 (Centre, Quarterly Mixed Migration Update West Africa, 2025). Arrivals to Spain’s Canary Islands declined significantly, reflecting crackdowns in Mauritania, Senegal, and Morocco, though entries via the Western Mediterranean rose (Beekman, 2025). Mauritania expelled more than 30,000 migrants, provoking concerns over human rights and sparking diplomatic frictions with Mali and Senegal, even as new bilateral agreements were introduced. Within the region, displacement in the Sahel surpassed 5.5 million people, while Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire recorded increases in refugee registrations (OCHA, 2024). The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) validated a regional Labour Migration Strategy aimed at expanding safe and regular mobility (IOM, 2025). Meanwhile, the United States and the United Kingdom introduced restrictive visa and deportation policies targeting several African countries. Severe flooding in Nigeria and Ghana displaced thousands, underscoring the extent to which climate events intersect with migration pressures (Centre, 2025).

The Eastern and Southern Africa, Egypt, and Yemen update documents escalating displacement caused by conflict, especially in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which have displaced millions into neighbouring states (Centre, 2025). Along major migration routes, risks have intensified, shipwrecks occurred off Yemen and Comoros, mass arrests were reported in Saudi Arabia and Southern Africa, and trafficking cases emerged in Myanmar and Pakistan (CBS News, 2025). Eritrean and Egyptian arrivals in Europe increased sharply, reflecting deteriorating domestic conditions and narrowing protection options. Policy shifts included Egypt’s extension of refugee residency permits and a proposed US-Rwanda deportation deal that has drawn scrutiny (UNHCR, 2025). The United States also expanded travel bans affecting several African nationalities (Bose, 2025). The report concludes that regional protection frameworks and governance reforms remain limited in their capacity to respond to rapidly evolving mobility dynamics (Centre, 2025).

 

 

Looking at broader patterns, African irregular migration beyond the continent declined sharply in 2024. Interceptions in Europe and the Gulf dropped by nearly half compared to 2023, a trend attributed to intensified border controls in North and West Africa and to conflicts in Yemen restricting mobility (Williams, 2025). In contrast, intra-African migration expanded, driven by labour demand, unemployment, and governance challenges. Approximately 15 million Africans now reside in other African countries. Labor migration is particularly prominent in West and Central Africa, with Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria serving as key destinations (IOM, 2020). In East Africa, circular labour movements are shaped by climate pressures and routes to the Arabian Peninsula and South Africa (Community, 2020). Southern Africa continues to attract migrants from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), with South Africa hosting the majority (Portal, 2020). Regional initiatives such as visa-free regimes, labour mobility protocols, and infrastructure plans like “Mission 300” are being advanced as tools to manage migration pressures and support economic integration (Acosta, 2024).

 

A report from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) situates these developments within a long-term transformation of African mobility (Williams, 2025). The study identifies a decisive decline in extra-continental irregular migration and a simultaneous increase in intra-African flows. Drivers include restrictive European and Gulf border regimes, along with intensifying domestic push factors such as conflict, economic inequality, and climate stressors. Regional integration frameworks, particularly the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) (African Union, 2018), are enhancing the appeal of intra-continental movement. Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya are highlighted as central destinations. Demographic dynamics, notably the youth majority comprising more than 60% of the continent’s population, are expected to sustain outward flows of students and professionals to Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. Environmental pressures including drought, flooding, and desertification in the Sahel, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Sudan are projected to further accelerate displacement. The ACSS concludes that coordinated governance will be critical to managing the intersection of demographic, environmental, and economic pressures (Williams, 2025).

 

As of April 30, 2025, UNHCR’s Regional Bureau for Southern Africa recorded more than 20,000 refugees and asylum seekers engaged in mixed movements, with the majority entering via land routes (Portal O. D., 2025). Primary countries of origin include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, and the Central African Republic. Most migrants are aged 18–59, though registration gaps persist, with only 47% enrolled in the biometric system. DR Congo, Zambia, and Malawi emerged as key asylum destinations, while onward movements from DR Congo and Burundi highlighted ongoing displacement dynamics. The data reveal limited access to legal protection, reinforcing calls for improved registration and coordinated policy responses (Portal O. D., 2025).

 

Individual narratives shed further light on the human costs of irregular migration. A field report from Ethiopia documents the case of 19-year-old Nigus Yosef, who perished in a boat accident enroute to Yemen, one of 132 missing from a vessel carrying nearly 200 migrants (Getachew, 2025). Similar incidents have affected youth from conflict-affected areas such as Tigray, where unemployment and restricted legal pathways compel high-risk journeys (Kyekyeku, 2025). The International Organization for Migration estimates that more than 1.1 million Ethiopians are living abroad, with Yemen receiving 90,000 migrants in 2024 despite ongoing armed conflict (Aid, 2024). Such trajectories underscore persistent demand for safe and legal migration channels.

Another case, documented by Reuters, follows the journey of 25-year-old Bahr el-Din Yakoub, a Sudanese refugee who traversed Egypt and Libya before reaching Greece (Amina Ismail, 2025). His trajectory illustrates broader displacement patterns among Sudanese nationals, who face tightening asylum regimes in Egypt, including state-controlled registration and deportations, prompting secondary movements through Libya. EU-backed enforcement efforts in Libya, while aimed at reducing irregular migration, have amplified risks of detention and abuse. The number of Sudanese arriving in Europe rose by 134% in early 2025, even as overall arrivals from North Africa declined. Analysts note that these shifts reflect the unintended consequences of externalized migration control (Amina Ismail, 2025).

Finally, Senegal’s navy reported the interception of 201 migrants in the Saloum Delta, a departure points along the Atlantic route to Spain’s Canary Islands (Blackburn, 2025). Despite an overall decline in migration to Europe, this corridor remains active, with 47,000 arrivals recorded in 2024 (IOM, 2024). The profile of migrants has diversified beyond West African nationals to include individuals from Pakistan, Syria, and Afghanistan, with an increasing proportion of women and children. EU cooperation agreements, including a €210 million deal with Mauritania, have produced only limited deterrence (Alipour, 2024). Seasonal weather patterns influence departure timing, yet crossings occur year-round, often with fatal outcomes.


The data from Q2 2025 depict a migration landscape shaped by intersecting forces, intensifying border enforcement, conflict-driven displacement, environmental shocks, and demographic pressures (MMC, 2025). While irregular migration toward Europe and the Gulf is declining, intra-African mobility is expanding, reinforced by labour market demands and regional integration efforts (Williams, 2025). At the same time, restrictive policies and securitised approaches have contributed to heightened risks along key routes, as demonstrated by fatal incidents in the Mediterranean, Atlantic, and Gulf of Aden. Narratives from Ethiopia, Sudan, and Senegal illustrate how policy frameworks intersect with individual decisions under conditions of constraint. Emerging evidence suggests that African migration is increasingly a regional phenomenon, with continental governance, legal pathways, and protection systems playing a central role in shaping outcomes. The challenge for policymakers lies in balancing security imperatives with humanitarian responsibilities, while harnessing migration as a potential driver of development and stability across Africa.

 

References

Acosta, D. D. (2024, January). Free Movement Regimes: The New Normal at a Global Level? Retrieved from Henley & Partners: https://www.henleyglobal.com/publications/citizenship-program-index-2025/industry-insights/free-movement-regimes-new-normal-global-level

African Union. (2018). The African Continental Free Trade Area. Retrieved from African Union: https://au.int/en/african-continental-free-trade-area

Aid, I. H. (2024, March 19). The vulnerabilities of the migrant population in Yemen. Retrieved from Intersos Humanitarian Aid: https://www.intersos.org/en/the-vulnerabilities-of-the-migrant-population-in-yemen/#:~:text=Although%20conflict%2C%20food%20insecurity%20and,%2C%20forced%20labor%2C%20and%20abuse.

Alipour, E. V. (2024, Feb 8). EU grants 210 mln to Mauritania to curb irregular migration. Retrieved from Euractiv: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/eu-grants-210-mln-to-mauritania-to-curb-irregular-migration/

Amina Ismail, N. E. (2025, June 11). Egypt's crackdown drives Sudanese refugees on new route to Libya and beyond. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/egypts-crackdown-drives-sudanese-refugees-new-route-libya-beyond-2025-06-11/

Bathke, B. (2025, April 07). Tunisia: Authorities clear around 7,000 migrants from camps around Sfax. Retrieved from Info Migrants: https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/63836/tunisia-authorities-clear-around-7000-migrants-from-camps-around-sfax

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